BOLETÍN INFORMATIVO MENSUAL

CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN EN EVALUACIÓN Y ENCUESTAS

NÚMERO 7 OCTUBRE 2007

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CONTENIDO
1. Del Director

2. Publicaciones recientes del CIEE

3. Seminarios de octubre

4. Avisos generales

5. Avisos administrativos

6. Cumpleañeros de octubre

7. Notas, artículos, conferencias

8. Sobre el boletín

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Del Director: Nueva estructura del CIEE
Desde mayo hemos iniciado un proceso de reorganización que no ha sido fácil; ciertamente aún tenemos mucho trabajo por delante, pero también es cierto que hemos comenzado a conocernos. En las últimas semanas, hemos estado implementando cambios en la estructura del Centro que buscan darle mayor solidez. Esta re-definición de la estructura debe permitirnos tener una mayor claridad tanto en la división de funciones entre las áreas, como en la ubicación de las ventanillas para los servicios que ofrecemos, y a la vez nos ayudará a darle más coherencia al trabajo que llevamos a cabo.
Específicamente, la propuesta es mantener un Centro con tres direcciones de área y cinco subdirecciones. Un paso importante en esta dirección es la nomenclatura con la que se identifica a las 3 Direcciones de Área del CIEE: Estadística, Economía, y Encuestas, que cuenta con el visto bueno del Director General, Mario H. Rodríguez.
En términos prácticos, para los dos primeros grupos no hay cambios importantes; en el caso de Encuestas, el cambio si es trascendente: hemos integrado en esta área a los 2 grupos operativos de trabajo de campo, así como el área de cómputo que está enfocada a nuestra plataforma informática para recolección y seguimiento de datos de las encuestas. De esta forma, la Dirección de Encuestas, a cargo de Juan Pablo Gutiérrez a partir del 16 de Octubre, se conforma de dos Subdirecciones Operativas de Encuestas, a cargo de Manuel Castro y Aurora Franco, y una Jefatura de Informática, a cargo de Fernando Zapata. Esta Dirección se convierte de esta forma en la ventanilla del CIEE (y en buena medida del INSP) para asuntos relacionados con levantamientos de encuestas.
Adicional a estas 3 direcciones, el Centro cuenta con 3 subdirecciones que dependen directamente de la Dirección Ejecutiva: Administrativa, de Docencia, y de Muestreo y Encuestoteca, a cargo de Sandra Torres, Juan Rauda, y Oswaldo Palma, respectivamente.
Estoy convencido de que esta estructura permitirá continuar el trabajo con una base más sólida para lograr nuestra visión: El CIEE será un centro académico de referencia nacional e internacional en evaluación y encuestas.

Stef

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Publicaciones recientes del CIEE
Este espacio es para divulgar las publicaciones del personal del Centro.

Lamadrid-Figueroa H, Tellez-Rojo MM, Hernandez-Avila M, Trejo-Valdivia B, Solano-Gonzalez M, Mercado-Garcia A, Smith D, Hu H, Wright RO. Association between the plasma/whole blood lead ratio and history of spontaneous abortion: a nested cross-sectional study. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 2007 Sep 27;7(1):22
BACKGROUND: Blood lead has been associated with an elevated risk of miscarriage. The plasmatic fraction of lead represents the toxicologically active fraction of lead. Women with a tendency to have a higher plasma/whole blood Pb ratio could tend towards an elevated risk of miscarriage due to a higher plasma Pb for a given whole blood Pb and would consequently have a history of spontaneous abortion. METHODS: We studied 207 pregnant Mexico City residents during the 1st trimester of pregnancy, originally recruited for two cohorts between 1997 and 2004. Criteria for inclusion in this study were having had at least one previous pregnancy, and having valid plasma and blood Pb measurements. Pb was measured in whole blood and plasma by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry using ultra-clean techniques. History of miscarriage in previous pregnancies was obtained by interview. The incidence rate of spontaneous abortion was defined as the proportion of previous pregnancies that resulted in miscarriage. Data were analyzed by means of Poisson regression models featuring the incidence rate of spontaneous abortion as the outcome and continuous or categorized plasma/blood Pb ratios as predictor variables. All models were adjusted for age and schooling. Additionally, logistic regression models featuring inclusion in the study sample as the outcome were fitted to assess potential selection bias. RESULTS: The mean number of miscarriages was 0.42 (range 0 to 4); mean Pb concentrations were 62.4 and 0.14 ug/dL in whole blood and plasma respectively. Mean plasma/ blood Pb ratio was 0.22%. We estimated that a 0.1 % increment in the plasma/blood Pb ratio lead was associated to a 12% greater incidence of spontaneous abortion (p=0.02). Women in the upper tertile of the plasma/blood Pb ratio had twice the incidence rate of those in the lower tertile (p=0.02). Conditional on recruitment cohort, inclusion in the study sample was unrelated to observable characteristics such as number of abortions, number of pregnancies, blood Pb levels, age schooling, weight and height. CONCLUSIONS: Women with a large plasma/whole blood Pb ratio may be at higher risk of miscarriage, which could be due to a greater availability of placental barrier-crossing Pb
http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2393/7/22

Hu D, Bertozzi SM, Gakidou E, Sweet S, Goldie SJ. The costs, benefits, and cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality in Mexico. PLoS ONE. 2007 Aug 15;2(1):e750.
BACKGROUND: In Mexico, the lifetime risk of dying from maternal causes is 1 in 370 compared to 1 in 2,500 in the U.S. Although national efforts have been made to improve maternal services in the last decade, it is unclear if Millennium Development Goal 5--to reduce maternal mortality by three-quarters by 2015--will be met. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed an empirically calibrated model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy and pregnancy-related complications in a cohort of 15-year-old women followed over their lifetime. After synthesizing national and sub-national trends in maternal mortality, the model was calibrated to current intervention-specific coverage levels and validated by comparing model-projected life expectancy, total fertility rate, crude birth rate and maternal mortality ratio with Mexico-specific data. Using both published and primary data, we assessed the comparative health and economic outcomes of alternative strategies to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. A dual approach that increased coverage of family planning by 15%, and assured access to safe abortion for all women desiring elective termination of pregnancy, reduced mortality by 43% and was cost saving compared to current practice. The most effective strategy added a third component, enhanced access to comprehensive emergency obstetric care for at least 90% of women requiring referral. At a national level, this strategy reduced mortality by 75%, cost less than current practice, and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $300 per DALY relative to the next best strategy. Analyses conducted at the state level yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Increasing the provision of family planning and assuring access to safe abortion are feasible, complementary and cost-effective strategies that would provide the greatest benefit within a short-time frame. Incremental improvements in access to high-quality intrapartum and emergency obstetric care will further reduce maternal deaths and disability.
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pubmed&pubmedid=17710149

Marseille E, Dandona L, Marshall N, Gaist P, Bautista-Arredondo S, Rollins B, Bertozzi SM, Coovadia J, Saba J, Lioznov D, Du Plessis JA, Krupitsky E, Stanley N, Over M, Peryshkina A, Kumar SG, Muyingo S, Pitter C, Lundberg M, Kahn JG. HIV prevention costs and program scale: data from the PANCEA project in five low and middle-income countries. BMC Health Serv Res. 2007 Jul 12;7:108.
BACKGROUND: Economic theory and limited empirical data suggest that costs per unit of HIV prevention program output (unit costs) will initially decrease as small programs expand. Unit costs may then reach a nadir and start to increase if expansion continues beyond the economically optimal size. Information on the relationship between scale and unit costs is critical to project the cost of global HIV prevention efforts and to allocate prevention resources efficiently. METHODS: The "Prevent AIDS: Network for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis" (PANCEA) project collected 2003 and 2004 cost and output data from 206 HIV prevention programs of six types in five countries. The association between scale and efficiency for each intervention type was examined for each country. Our team characterized the direction, shape, and strength of this association by fitting bivariate regression lines to scatter plots of output levels and unit costs. We chose the regression forms with the highest explanatory power (R2). RESULTS: Efficiency increased with scale, across all countries and interventions. This association varied within intervention and within country, in terms of the range in scale and efficiency, the best fitting regression form, and the slope of the regression. The fraction of variation in efficiency explained by scale ranged from 26-96%. Doubling in scale resulted in reductions in unit costs averaging 34.2% (ranging from 2.4% to 58.0%). Two regression trends, in India, suggested an inflection point beyond which unit costs increased. CONCLUSION: Unit costs decrease with scale across a wide range of service types and volumes. These country and intervention-specific findings can inform projections of the global cost of scaling up HIV prevention efforts.

http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pubmed&pubmedid=17626616

Leroy, J.L., E. Frongillo (2007). “Can interventions to promote animal production ameliorate undernutrition?”. Journal of Nutrition 137: 2311-2316.
The potential of animal-source foods (ASF) to alleviate micronutrient deficiencies is well recognized. How the intake of ASF can be effectively increased is not known, but promoting animal production (AP) is one possible method. We reviewed the impact of interventions promoting AP on nutritional status and on 6 nutrition-related outcomes: production, household income and expenditure, caregiver income, caregiver time and workload, zoonosis, and dietary intake. Information about the effects on each of the possible outcomes is needed to be able to weigh trade-offs in the potential benefits and costs of promoting AP. The majority of the 14 identified studies found a positive effect of the promotion of AP on production. All studies evaluating the impact on household income or expenditure reported a positive effect on these outcomes. Evidence regarding impact on caregiver income and on caregiver time and workload is too limited to draw any conclusions. We found no studies that examined the impact of the promotion of AP on zoonosis. The studies generally reported a positive impact on dietary intake. Only 4 studies evaluated the impact on nutritional status and found a positive effect. It is unclear whether the improvements in dietary intake and nutritional status were a direct effect of increased production or an indirect effect of increased income. Future studies on the AP-nutrition link would benefit from stronger methodological designs. Available evidence is insufficient to answer whether the promotion of AP is an effective means to alleviate undernutrition. J. Nutr. 137: 2311–2316, 2007.

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Seminarios de octubre
Todos los seminarios se llevan a cabo los miércoles a la 1pm en el Aula Magna (Cuernavaca), a menos que se indique alguna otra sede

Miércoles 3 de octubre
Presenta: Sandra Sosa-Rubí & Omar Galárraga
Tema: Heterogeneidad del Impacto del Seguro Popular en la Utilización de Servicios Obstétricos en México, 2001–2006: Un Modelo Probit Multinomial con Endogeneidad – Primera parte

Miércoles 10 de octubre
Presenta: Sandra Sosa-Rubí & Omar Galárraga
Tema: Heterogeneidad del Impacto del Seguro Popular en la Utilización de Servicios Obstétricos en México, 2001–2006: Un Modelo Probit Multinomial con Endogeneidad – Primera parte

Miércoles 17 de octubre
Presenta: Arantxa Colchero
Tema: El efecto de la estatura y el peso en los ingresos de mujeres en Cebu, Filipinas (1983-2002)

Miércoles 24 de octubre
Presenta: Eduardo Álvarez Falcón (tentativo)
Tema: Por definir

Miércoles 31 de octubre
Presenta: Omar Galárraga
Tema: Por definir

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Avisos generales
Reunión del Centro: se está convocando a una reunión de todo el Centro para el próximo miércoles 10 de octubre, a las 14hs. Todavía no está definido si será en Cuernavaca o Tlalpan, pero les pedimos reservar su tiempo desde las 13:00 en caso de que tengan que trasladarse al otro campus.

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Avisos administrativos
Acuerdos con la DAF: se han estado realizando una serie de reuniones con la Dirección de Administración y Finanzas, para simplificar los trámites administrativos. Entre los primeros resultados de estas sesiones, en las que participa el Director General del INSP, se ha acordado que cada área de la DAF puede recibir y procesar los trámites respectivos (que antes tenían que llegar a través del Director de Administración y Finanzas, así como eliminar la necesidad de documentos impresos para los trámites aprobados en el sistema digital Navision.
Comisiones globales: este trámite se seguirá realizando a través de gastos a comprobar, en tanto se habilita el procedimiento específico en Navision. El procedimiento que está en proceso de implementación se basa en la captura masiva del personal, con un responsable de los recursos, y requiere que todos los que reciban los viáticos para trabajo de campo tengan una cuenta bancaria registrada en el sistema.
Gastos a comprobar: todas las solicitudes de gastos a comprobar deben contar con una justificación o desglose del uso de los recursos solicitados.

Regresar

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Cumpleañeros de octubre
Para todos los que cumplen o cumplieron años durante octubre, ¡muchas felicidades!
Daniel Ángel Acuña Montesinos 01-Oct
Teresa Álvarez León 02-Oct
Omar Galarraga Salazar 05-Oct
Laura R. Mendoza Alvarado 07-Oct
Sergio Bautista Arredondo 09-Oct
Atanacio Valencia Mendoza 14-Oct
Stefano M. Bertozzi 14-Oct
Armando Ferreira Lara 22-Oct
Ángel Gabriel Luna Quintero 24-Oct
Maritsa Solano González 25-Oct
Lilian Adai Flores 29-Oct
Carlos Alberto Ruiz Viveros 31-Oct
Cualquier omisión en la lista es totalmente involuntaria, por favor envíanos tu fecha de cumpleaños a boletín_evaluacion@correo.insp.mx

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Notas, artículos conferencias
Este espacio es para difundir material reciente en temas relacionados con las áreas de investigación en el Centro. Si quieres compartir algo, por favor envíalo a boletín_evaluacion@correo.insp.mx

Call for LETTERS OF INTENT: The Economic Globalisation, Growth and HIV/AIDS Initiative:Research Grants
Link to Call for LETTERS OF INTENT: http://www.heard.org.za/research/IDRC/
Deadline for submission of LETTERS OF INTENT: 01 November 2007
The Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division (HEARD) based at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) based in Canada, invite letters of intent from teams led or co-led by researchers from low- and middle-income countries interested in conducting innovative projects exploring the linkages among economic globalisation, growth and HIV/AIDS along two themes:
Theme 1: Exploring how HIV/AIDS interacts with efforts to facilitate inclusive or pro-poor growth strategies
Theme 2: Exploring the impacts of economic globalisation and growth on vulnerability and resilience to HIV/AIDS
The initial funding round will support up to five grants at a maximum of CAD $100,000 (approximately US$90,000) each for one- to two-year projects. The application process is in two stages: letters of intent and then full proposals. Letters of intent will undergo competitive peer review, and successful applicants will be provided with CAD $2,000 to support development of the full proposal. Full proposals will undergo competitive peer review.
Please see the Call for Letters of Intent for full details. For inquiries, please contact:
Marisa Casale at casale@ukzn.ac.za or Stephanie Nixon at stephanie.nixon@utoronto.ca

Health Economics and Global Renaissance: 7th European Conference on Health Economics
Location: Roma, Italy
Dates: 23-26 July 2008
Venue: Faculty of Economics, University of Rome, "Tor Vergata"
Theme: "Health Economics and Global Renaissance"
Deadline submission of abstract: 7 December 2007 Authors will be notified of acceptance: 1 February 2008 Deadline submission of full paper: 16 June 2008 Early bird registration: 15 February 2008 Proceedings and Publication: All the papers and posters will be published in the Conference Proceedings and in a CD-ROM distributed at the conference to all conference participants who register for the conference. In addition, a book based on papers presented at the Conference is also planned.
Contact: For additional information, please visit http://www.echeroma2008.eu/ or contact the conference coordinators at: f.mennini@uniroma2.it; spandonaro@economia.uniroma2.it and a.donia@uniroma2.it

The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age by Christopher Carpenter, Carlos Dobkin - #13374 (HC HE)

Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of alcohol consumption on mortality using the minimum drinking age in a regression discontinuity design. We find that granting legal access to alcohol at age 21 leads to large and immediate increases in several measures of alcohol consumption, including a 21 percent increase in the number of days on which people drink. This increase in alcohol consumption results in a discrete 9 percent increase in the mortality rate at age 21. The overall increase in deaths is due primarily to a 14 percent increase in deaths due to motor vehicle accidents, a 30 percent increase in alcohol overdoses and alcohol-related deaths, and a 15 percent increase in suicides. Combining the reduced-form estimates reveals that a 1 percent increase in the number of days a young adult drinks or drinks heavily results in a .4 percent increase in total mortality. Given that mortality due to external causes peaks at about age 21 and that young adults report very high levels of alcohol consumption, our results suggest that public policy interventions to reduce youth drinking can have substantial public health benefits.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W13374

The Power of the Pill for the Next Generation by Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat, Daniel M. Hungerman - #13402 (CH PE LS)
Abstract: In this paper we ask how the diffusion of oral contraception to young unmarried women affected the number and maternal characteristics of children born to these women. Using census data, we find that early pill access led to an increase in the share of children whose mothers were married, college-educated, and had professional occupations. The pill's effects on the average mother are different from the pill's effects on the average woman, and the effects of the pill on maternal characteristics are in some instances different from the effects of abortion. We investigate the mechanisms by which the pill led to these differential effects and find that access to the pill led to falls in short-term fertility rates for young women and led to decreases in lifetime fertility at the intensive and extensive margins. The impacts of the pill on household characteristics are thus associated with retiming of births, changes in the characteristics of potential mothers, changes in which women become mothers, and by reductions in completed family size. Finally, while the pill affected maternal characteristics differently than abortion, we find suggestive results that availability of the pill lowered abortions among young women.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W13402

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Sobre el Boletín Informativo del CIEE
El Boletín Informativo busca ser un espacio para dar a conocer las actividades que desarrollamos en el CIEE, a la vez que mantenernos al tanto de información relevante para todos. Si tienes alguna contribución o sugerencia para el boletín, por favor hazla llegar a boletin_evaluacion@correo.insp.mx.